Or would we have to break the laws of physics to get there in my lifetime?
Love your work @KENDRAVANT - thanks for breaking this all down. I did note though, that the odds appear to have increased since you took your screenshot. The sheet that I can see now puts the odds at 4.7% - perhaps they have updated based on Q* ;-)
Interestingly while it isn't clear who has updated the probabilities, the ones that have changed sustantially are:
We invent a way for AGIs to learn faster than humans 40% -> 70%
AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr 16% -> 70%
We invent and scale cheap, quality robots 60% -> 80%
Curious that the 'summary of our reasoning' section has not changed.
Helps to have one of your authors on the inside I guess. And yes, the screenshot was from the publication date back in June ish I think.
Love your work @KENDRAVANT - thanks for breaking this all down. I did note though, that the odds appear to have increased since you took your screenshot. The sheet that I can see now puts the odds at 4.7% - perhaps they have updated based on Q* ;-)
Interestingly while it isn't clear who has updated the probabilities, the ones that have changed sustantially are:
We invent a way for AGIs to learn faster than humans 40% -> 70%
AGI inference costs drop below $25/hr 16% -> 70%
We invent and scale cheap, quality robots 60% -> 80%
Curious that the 'summary of our reasoning' section has not changed.
Helps to have one of your authors on the inside I guess. And yes, the screenshot was from the publication date back in June ish I think.